Libanon inför inbördeskrig?

Libanon kan stå inför ett nytt inbördeskrig inom några veckor skriver BENJAMIN JOFFE-WALT / THE MEDIA LINE .
En FN utredning om vem som stod bakom mordet på Rafiq Al-Hariri , Libanons före detta premiärminister håller på att bli klar.
Det verkar som om det skulle vara Hizzbollah som utpekas som skyldig. Hizzbollah sitter idag i den libanesiska regeringen och om det visar sig att de är skyldig til mordet kan vad som helst hända säger analytiker.
Läs mera : Why is Lebanon So Tense?
What is clear, however, is that in a matter of weeks Lebanon is set to face what some local analysts are predicting will be the beginnings of another Lebanese civil war and which others are predicting will be the largest political crisis since the country’s former leader was assassinated five years ago. Either way, they agree, something smelly is about to hit the fan. On February 14, 2005, Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri and 22 others were killed by a massive 1000 kilogram TNT explosion on the Beirut seafront. The assassination was followed by an extensive international outcry and led to massive political change in Lebanon, culminating in the withdrawal of Syrian troops after 29 years in the country. The late Al-Hariri opposed the Syrian presence in Lebanon and supported the disarming of Hizbullah, a Lebanese Shia militia more powerful than the Lebanese army. The Al-Hariri murder has been widely blamed on elements from Hizbullah and/or Syrian intelligence. The UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon, based in The Hague, has been investigating the assassination for years and has yet to issue any indictments. But Hizbullah’s leader, Sheikh Sayyid Hasan Na’srallah, announced last month that the tribunal was set to indict Hizbullah members in the assassination. The Shia militia’s powerful political wing currently sits on a governing coalition along with the U.S.-backed, Sunni-led Future Movement headed by Sa’ad Al-Hariri, son of the slain Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri. Lebanese analysts say the possibility of the prime minister’s governing partners being accused by an international court of assassinating his father, the country’s former leader, has created a state of a political instability and bedlam.
"I think what happened yesterday at the border is a reflection of the situation in the region,” Fadi Abi Allam, President of the Beirut-based Permanent Peace Movement told The Media Line. “We are in a state of war - both within Lebanon and outside - and everyone trying to protect themselves, so there is a real escalation of tensions.” “The issue is not just Palestine, we are in a state of war here in Lebanon itself,” Allam continued. “The Al-Hariri assassination is a big issue. To date, there is no solution from the international community and everybody is waiting to see what will happen and how this will affect internal politics and the situation in Israel.”

A Third Lebanon War?
There has been a steady and disturbing barrage of reports lately prediciting another war, sooner rather than later, between Israel and Hezbollah, the militant Islamic group that controls most of southern Lebanon and is firmly entrenched in the Lebanese parliament.

The cedar retribution
With the announcement from Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah this week that Hizbullah members may be indicted for the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Raifk Hariri, one thing is now (publicly) clear, no matter what one may think about the integrity of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL): the militant Shiite party is both angry and concerned. Of course, this isn't a wholly new development: the party has apparently been preparing for just such an eventuality at least since the summer of 2006 when the first media reports began circulating in this regard (interestingly, in Hizbullah's analysis, these reports came just after Israel found itself unable to smash its bitter enemy in open battle during the July War).