söndag 28 februari 2010

Hizzbollah ett fortsatt hot

En kort analys av läget vid den israeliska gränsen till Libanon och Hizzbollahs och Irans eventuella framtidplaner för området skriver JONATHAN SPYER:Muslim World: The northern tinder box
Både Irans och Hizzbollahs ledare talar om utplånandet av Israel, Hizzbollahs ledare talar öppet om att i ett framtida krig angripa civila israeliska mål. Från Hizzbollahs sida säger man också att man inte går med på någon diplomatisk lösning med Israel utan krig är enda sättet att lösa konflikten.

"The war of words is continuing. The latest salvos were fired last week by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and his Lebanese ally and client, Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Ahmadinejad reportedly told Nasrallah that if Israel attacks his organization, Hizbullah’s response should be sufficient enough to lead to the closure, once and for all, of the Israeli “case.”
In the same week, Nasrallah promised attendees at a ‘Resistance Martyrs Day’ celebration that his movement would target Israel’s infrastructure in the event of further hostilities – airports, factories and refineries were specifically mentioned.
Hizbullah’s second in command, Naim Qassem joined the goading this week, describing Israel as “worse than Nazism,” and the “leader of international crime under the sponsorship of the US and major world powers.” Qassem reiterated his movement’s rejection of any diplomatic option vis-a-vis Israel, saying that “What was taken by the force of occupation can only be regained by the force of the resistance...
...So can we conclude that deterrence has been achieved, and the situation of latent tension in the North is likely to remain at its current level for the foreseeable future, short of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities? To do so would be to assume that the thinking of the Hizbullah leadership and its allies in Iran is ultimately pragmatic, rational, and non-ideological. And this assumption would be mistaken. The writings of Hizbullah’s leaders, and the actions of the group – particularly since 2000 – offer clear evidence that it is genuinely committed to jihad against Israel. Recent visitors to Beirut speak of an atmosphere of high, almost delusional morale among Hizbullah’s cadres. It is sincerely believed that the next war will initiate Israel’s demise, ”

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