Palestinierna gör nytt försök i FN

De palestinska ledarna har övergett försöken att genom förhandlingar få till stånd ett fredsavtal med Israel och en ny stat på västbanken och i Gaza. Någon annan slutsats kan man knappast dra av Mahmoud Abbas beslut att i höst åter en gång göra ett nytt försök att bli medlem i FN.
De palestinska ledarna har redan i ett par år vägrat förhandla med Israel och det är uppenbart att de anser att de kan uppnå ett bättre resultat genom att vidta ensidiga åtgärder i FN. Palestinierna har lärt sig av fjolårets misslyckade försök och deras taktik går nu ut på att kringgå säkerhetsrådet, där de inte kunde få ett tillräckligt stöd senaste höst, istället vänder de sig till generalförsamlingen där de automatiskt får stöd av majoriteten för sin anhållan.
Det är främst USA, Israel och några EU-länder som motsätter sig ensidiga utspel av palestinierna och kräver  förhandlingar mellan parterna.
När palestinierna utan förhandlingar försöker få till stånd förändringar i territoriets status är det ett brott mot Oslo-avtalet och följderna är svåra att överblicka.
Palestinian Media Watch har sammanställt en rapport om palestiniernas taktik för att genom ensidiga åtgärder erkännas som självständig stat.
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PA to unilaterally seek "non-member statehood," but only after US elections

Förkortad version:

                                                      PA Chairman Abbas:

"The first time we weren't successful,
but certainly - Allah willing -
we will succeed the second time."

by Itamar Marcus

The Palestinian Authority plans to go to the UN again this year to request statehood. However, this time they expect to succeed by using a stages plan that will bypass and neutralize Israeli, US and EU opposition. Last week, Palestinian Media Watch documented that PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas expressed confidence that this time, the PA will succeed:

"We went to the UN [in 2011] in order to obtain recognition of a state. The first time we weren't successful, but certainly - Allah willing - we will succeed the second time."

[PA TV (Fatah), July 28, 2012]

PA tactic for unilaterally achieving statehood:

1- The PA plans to bypass the Security Council and avoid a potential US veto by not requesting full statehood. Rather, the PA will seek to attain the status of a "non-member state," which is determined by the UN General Assembly. In the General Assembly, the PA is assured a majority vote, with the PA hoping to "secure votes from 180 of the 193 member states of the UN General Assembly."

2- Although it will request non-member status in September, the PA plans to intentionally delay the UN vote until after the US elections in order to avoid "confrontation with the United States." According to the PA daily:

"Discussions on the wording of the suggested resolution will continue until after the upcoming US elections on November 4."

The PA has chosen a delaying tactic because it realizes that the US will not support their unilateral actions before the elections. The US and many EU countries have said that they oppose unilateral PA actions that violate the Oslo Accords, which demand negotiated agreements to change the status of the PA or any land under Israeli administration. However, the PA assumes that after the elections, the current US administration will be more responsive and supportive of their unilateral statehood request.

3- Once non-member status is achieved, the PA plans to use this position to attempt to expand its territory without negotiations. According to the Oslo Accords, Jerusalem and all of the West Bank are to remain under Israeli rule unless the land's status is changed through negotiated settlements. The PA's plan is to bypass the Oslo Accords and hope that the international community will consider these lands, including Israel's capital Jerusalem, as "Palestinian" and "occupied by Israel." According to PA Foreign Minister Riad Al-Maliki:

"Israel will no longer be able to define the occupied territories as disputed lands. They will become lands of a separate, occupied state."

4- Subsequently, the Palestinian non-member state will continue to seek full statehood, which will then be a smaller step:

"He [the PA Foreign Minister] said that as soon as this [non-member state] has been accomplished, the Palestinians will continue their efforts to attain full member status at the UN."